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The announcement of Apple's Vision Pro was bound to get instant attention. What's interested me since wasn't just the product itself, but the way everyone has responded with predictions. The future of tech is always near impossible to predict, but it's easy to get drawn into trying, especially for those who build things for these platforms every day. Everyone wants to be the one with the insight, the one who sees what others can't. It's interesting to me, though, how every time something new is announced, the default reaction is to predict failure.

a comment section from an Engadget article covering the announcement of the original iPhone:

There are plenty of reasons to believe that the Vision Pro might not live up to the hype. At $3500, it's inaccessible to most people. The feature set is not all that different from an iPad. Sure, the experience of using the device may be unique, but is it $3500 unique? And then there's the battery life, coming in at just 2 hours, and the potential for social discomfort reminiscent of the Google Glass debacle. Add to that the fact that it doesn't appear to be particularly geared toward fitness or gaming, and the prospect of donning a headset to capture and relive memories might strike some as downright dystopian.

Before we write off the Vision Pro as a doomed venture, let's take a moment to consider Apple's track record. This is a company that has consistently taken niche markets and propelled them into the mainstream. They did it with the Mac, the iPod, the iPhone, the iPad, and the Apple Watch. Each time, they've met with overwhelming success. Apple is one of the richest companies in history, with a record of calculated moves backed by massive R&D investment. Just think: Does our 24 hours' worth of experience really outweigh the years of Apple research?

When you look at it in the context of Apple's previous product launches, the Vision Pro doesn't seem all that outlandish. The Apple Watch launched at $450, the iPad at $700, and the iPhone at $900, all adjusted for inflation. Hell, the original Mac was released for the equivalent of $7,400 today. The money in VR is there too. In just a year, Facebook saw its non-advertising revenue jump from $346 million to $885 million. And that was three years ago.

If the Apple Watch is anything to go by, we can expect the Vision Pro to evolve over time. Originally, the Apple Watch was marketed as a luxury product with a handful of communication and fitness features instead of the $250 health and safety product it is now. As third-party developers get their hands on the Vision Pro, I'm sure we'll see its uses and value proposition expand and shift in ways we can't expect. Right now, the only people who will really be buying this are early adopters who will use it like Apple is dictating now. Until the price comes down and everyday consumers normalize being immersed in some intangible 3D space, we won't truly understand its potential. Remember when we were still receiving AOL CDs? Who could've predicted the rise of Instagram, TikTok, or Uber back then?

The tech industry is ever-evolving. It's not always the obvious features that shape our world, but the surprising and unpredictable ways in which we use them.